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After 500 years of almost incessant violence across the globe, Western countries are now rushing to increase military spending, New Zealand being the latest.

Just Defence, a Wellington-based defence policy group, is calling on the government to freeze spending on defence and urgently reassess New Zealand’s place in a rapidly changing world. This comes as the government has just announced a massive hike in defence spending as part of the 2025 Defence Capability Plan (DCP) — $9 billion (A$8.4 billion) of new money over the next four years. 

To put it in perspective, defence cost New Zealand about $6 billion (A$5.6 billion) in 2024–25. That is more than we spent on justice, corrections, conservation and police, combined. The extra $9 billion dwarfs that and comes at a time when the government says we can’t even afford to give children .

We also need to appreciate that our military is increasingly equipped and configured to slot into a United States-led coalition of powers that is first and foremost focused on achieving US strategic goals (containing China). 

Just Defence says the public needs to be consulted and we don’t need to be rushed into this. Hit the pause button. The time to do that is now, prior to the Budget in May.

Defence policy crossroads 

The whole world has been stopped in its tracks by the seismic geopolitical events triggered by the US government.

“The government may not want the world to change but it has,” Kevin Hackwell from Just Defence says. “Under Donald Trump’s erratic leadership the US is no longer a reliable ally.  What is equally important is that China, our greatest trading partner, offers no credible threat to New Zealand.”

The DCP makes clear, however, that NZ sees China as the problem. The plan suffers from a myopic view of the world masquerading as analysis.

It states: “China’s assertive pursuit of its strategic objectives is the principal driver for strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, and it continues to use all of its tools of statecraft in ways that can challenge both international norms of behaviour and the security of other states. Of particular concern is the rapid and non-transparent growth of China’s military capability.”

The DCP references the recent expedition south by the Chinese navy but doesn’t acknowledge our contribution to tensions by NZ and Australian warships sailing through the Taiwan Strait or, far more significantly, Australia basing US B52 and B2 nuclear-capable bombers at Tindal and the decision to build a fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines to support the US in the South China Sea.

Defence Minister Judith Collins recognises that the world is inherently more dangerous today; what she fails to acknowledge is that the Anglosphere, led by the US, is the number one cause of the problem on virtually every corner of the globe. Genocide in Gaza, bombing in multiple countries, including Yemen, threats to Greenland, Canada, Panama, Iran, China and elsewhere all come from the US.

Realistic threat assessment needed 

Elements of the government’s analysis are valid but the complete absence of any honest appraisal of US determination to maintain hegemony, contain China’s economic and strategic rise, by force if necessary, and NZ’s decision to see our greatest trading partner as a future enemy, all smack of analysis-lite, rhetoric-heavy. It is worth recalling that China has not fought a war since 1979 whereas the US has fought endless wars in the same period.

“Yet our military,” Kevin Hackwell says, “is absolutely designed to be part of the US fighting World War III against China.”

“It’s time to imagine something better suited to defending Aotearoa than helping project US power in the South China Sea.”

2025 Budget

In the , the government has deferred the decision as to whether to replace our two frigates for the next few years and this is a welcome move. The primary role of our frigates is to form the outer edge of a US aircraft carrier battle group.

The increases in spending are spread across a range of areas: digital modernisation, science and tech, cyber capabilities, long-range remotely piloted aircraft, helicopters, planes, Javelin missiles, uncrewed surveillance vessels, and a sustainment programme for the frigates. Strong arguments can be made for an upgrade in some areas; the scale of the spend is what is most disturbing.

Towards a more independent defence setting

Peace activist Marie Russell managed to discombobulate Foreign Minister Winston Peters simply by standing silently with a placard last year at a foreign affairs lecture in Parliament Buildings. She says our military spending is already out of control and misallocated.

“We really need to reassess our place in the world,” she says. “It seems to me, the safest place, the most secure place for us, is to be non-aligned, to have an independent foreign policy. We need to stop and have a serious public discussion about what security is all about and what is the nature of the real threats that we face."

Russell says at some point we have to decide: are we going to prepare for war on behalf of the US against China — our major trading partner — or are we going to fix the water pipes and give our children a proper education?

“I would like to see the pipes fixed. I'd like to see the transport systems fixed. I would like to see the degradation of the environment fixed. There's so much that needs doing urgently to make life good in our country. Spending yet more money on defence just seems unnecessary,” Russell says.

Mike Smith, another member of Just Defence, says it is worth recalling the stronger, more independent stances NZ has taken in the past. These notably include the [Norman] Kirk government sending a navy ship to Mururoa to support Greenpeace protests against nuclear testing, and the [David] Lange government’s decision not to allow the visit of the USS Buchanan because of the US “neither confirm nor deny” policy. This ultimately led to the end of NZ participation in ANZUS; a price, Smith says, that was worth paying. Similarly, the [Helen] Clark government’s decision to not send troops to support the US war in Iraq was proven sound and principled.

The Just Defence alternative

Just Defence, founded amid the successful 1980s nuclear-free push, envisions a military that “you don’t use offensively, you use to protect yourselves”. 

The group proposes:

• Non-alignment.

• Investment in better civil defence/ emergency management.

• Maintain adequate shipping, aircraft, and technology to protect fisheries and support Pacific neighbours. 

• Support and aid to Pacific island nations This is important to Aotearoa New Zealand as a good Pacific neighbour.

• Show leadership for peace. As a small and geographically isolated country, we have shone in international affairs through moral leadership, for example our successful “guitars not guns” peacekeeping role in Bougainville.

Just Defence says now is the time to renew our independent foreign policy and focus on the real threats to our security. 

I couldn't agree more.

[Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He hosts the public policy platform . For full disclosure, Doyle knows and supports all the members of Just Defence mentioned in this article.]