World Bank should take its own advice on climate change

November 26, 2012
Issue 
The World Bank released its Turn Down the Heat report on climate change on November 18.

The World Bank delivered a brutal warning about the dangers of runaway climate change and called for rapid action to cut greenhouse gas emissions in a recent report. But don鈥檛 expect the bank to take its own advice.

The bank released its report on climate change on November 18. Subtitled 鈥淲hy a 4 degree warmer world must be avoided鈥, the report said the world is headed for a 4掳C average temperature rise by the end of the century, possibly as soon as 2060.

On today鈥檚 trends, a 4掳C world is almost certain 鈥 even if all nations were to meet their current targets to cut emissions. That is, the existing pledges to cut emissions made at recent international climate talks are not enough to make a difference.

The report makes clear that a 4掳C world . The World Bank said a 4掳C temperature rise would lead to average summer temperatures about 6掳C higher in north Africa, the Mediterranean, the Middle East and North America.

The higher temperatures will also mean 鈥渁 dramatic increase in the intensity and frequency of high temperature extremes鈥.

These extremes, such the unprecedented Russian heatwave of 2010, would become 鈥渢he new normal summer鈥. The Russian heatwave and wiped close to US$15 billion off the country鈥檚 GDP.

The big rise in CO2 levels would also cause a 150% rise in ocean acidification by 2100, something probably 鈥渦nparalleled in Earth鈥檚 history鈥. This would spell the end for the world鈥檚 coral reefs but also wipe out global fish stocks, which anyway by mid-century from overfishing. Today, as their main protein source.

Sea-level rise will be an enduring crisis in a 4 degree world. The World Bank estimates sea levels would rise by up to a metre by 2100. But even a 2掳C temperature rise could cause a four-metre sea level rise by 2300. In 2010, estimated that 鈥渕ore than 200 million people live on coastlines less than 5 metres above sea level鈥. It said that figure will rise to at least 400 million by 2100.

A 4掳C temperature rise would also signify a species extinction crisis, 鈥渟urpassing habitat destruction as the greatest threat to biodiversity鈥.

The report noted new research rules out hopes that a warmer world could lead to greater food production. Instead, the 鈥渞esults suggest instead a rapidly rising risk of crop yield reductions as the world warms鈥.

The World Bank report also warned that these predictions very likely understate the dangers. Climate change does not affect the planet in a linear, straightforward way. Its impacts are nonlinear 鈥 the gradual build up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can cause abrupt changes to the Earth鈥檚 ecosystems.

This year鈥檚 summer Arctic ice melt, in which , is an example of nonlinear climate change in action. In turn, the melting of the Arctic ice opens the door to the passing of other climate tipping points, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet or the release of huge reserves of methane frozen on the Arctic seabed.

The World Bank said as global warming approaches and passes 2掳C of warming, 鈥渢he risk of crossing thresholds of nonlinear tipping elements in the Earth system, with abrupt climate change impacts and unprecedented high-temperature climate regimes, increases鈥.

It said one of these critical tipping points was 鈥渢he disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet鈥, which would lead to 鈥渕ore rapid sea-level rise than projected in this analysis鈥.

Another tipping point would be a 鈥渓arge-scale Amazon dieback drastically affecting ecosystems, rivers, agriculture, energy production, and livelihoods in an almost continental scale鈥, which would add 鈥渟ubstantially to 21st-century global warming鈥.

The Turn Down the Heat report concluded: 鈥淭he projected 4掳C warming simply must not be allowed to occur 鈥 the heat must be turned down鈥. Yet strangely, it offered no suggestions or proposals for how this could be done, other than a call for 鈥渆arly, cooperative, international actions鈥.

In practice, World Bank investments in fossil fuels around the world are turning the heat up.

For example, the bank is funding a . Brown coal is the most polluting fossil fuel.

In 2010, the World Bank loaned $3.75 billion to build a giant 4.8 gigawatt coal-fired power plant 鈥 one of world鈥檚 biggest 鈥 in South Africa. That year, the said the World Bank鈥檚 funding of coal hit 鈥渁 record high of $4.4 billion鈥.

of coal had increased 40-fold over the previous 5 years.

by the NGO coalition Jubilee South Asia Pacific Movement on Debt and Development said the World Bank was 鈥渢ainted by a history of financing projects that produce or heavily use fossil fuels鈥. The bank has financed 745 such projects over 61 years in the Asia Pacific region, at a cost of $70 billion. About $20 billion of this was invested in the past 10 years.

Last month, the World Bank announced it would provide insurance for a new project in North Africa: a huge expansion

The bank is also spending billions helping agribusinesses . Because this replaces climate-friendly small scale farming with fossil fuel-reliant industrial agriculture, the bank is helping create new sources of greenhouse gas emissions.

Given its continued financing of polluting industries, there is no reason to think , as The Guardian reporter John Vidal said on November 25.

Rather than an indication it will change its ways, the bank鈥檚 Turn Down the Heat report has more to do with a public relations drive in the context of the new round of United Nations climate talks, which began in Doha, Qatar, on November 26.

Two years ago, the Cancun UN climate conference of the multi-billion dollar . This was meant to help fund sustainable, low emissions development 鈥 especially in the global South. The details of the fund will come under higher-than-usual scrutiny during the Doha conference.

A permanent trustee for the fund , but there is little doubt that the World Bank will put its hand out for the prize. To do this smoothly, it needs to bolster its green credentials to counter the opposition of climate action groups worldwide.

In 2010, more than 90 NGOs and activist groups sent an open letter to UN climate chief Christiana Figueres,

The groups said: 鈥淚n spite of the climate and economic crises, the World Bank continues to finance fossil fuel projects at an alarming rate, promote false solutions to the climate crisis, and use funding instruments that increase the indebtedness of developing countries.

鈥淭hus, the World Bank is not suited to advise in the design of a fund that must ensure fair and effective long-term financing based on the principles of environmental integrity, equity, sustainable development, and democracy.鈥

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