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United States President Donald Trump has once again withdrawn the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, sparking global concerns about the future of climate action. As the world grapples with record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events, experts fear this decision could derail efforts to combat climate change and achieve net-zero emissions.

Trump previously withdrew from the agreement during his presidency in 2017. He now labels the international accord an , signalling his administration’s stance towards climate change for the next four years.

The Paris Agreement, established in 2015 with the participation of nearly 200 countries, aims to combat climate change and limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to the BBC. Trump's withdrawal has left climate experts deeply concerned that the worst is yet to come.

The US is the of greenhouse gases and has historically been the largest periodic contributor to total carbon dioxide emissions. With 2024 recorded as the hottest year in history and the increasing impact of extreme weather events — such as California’s wildfires and the severe hurricanes in Florida — neglecting climate change threatens to accelerate a global crisis, according to NPR. 

Doubling down on deregulation, Trump's administration has rolled back numerous , reduced incentives to transition away from fossil fuels, slashed funding for developing nations coping with climate change, and expanded oil and gas drilling, as reported in the Guardian. In addition, references to climate science have been systematically removed from government websites. For example, the Agriculture Department’s web page containing wildfire-related climate assessments has been taken down.

Trump’s “Drill Baby Drill” slogan has become a reality with former Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright now sworn in as the new Secretary of Energy. According to Reuters, Wright stated his top priority is to boost domestic energy productions, focusing on the liquefied natural gas — an exportable, super-chilled fuel — along with nuclear energy. 

CO₂ levels peak in 2024

So, will Trump's withdrawal hinder global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and what does this mean for the future of renewable energy?

All indicators seem to confirm that this is a major setback for emissions cuts. As for support for renewables, the future remains unclear at a federal level and Wright’s comments suggest they are not a priority. Most notably, David Victor, a professor at the University of California – San Diego, believes tariffs, especially on China, could hinder the energy transition by increasing costs and disrupting , reports the .

For the first time in history, annual average temperatures have surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, indicating that we are already falling behind the Paris Agreement's target. The relentless burning of fossil fuels, widespread deforestation, and the effects of El Niño on ocean surface temperatures have weakened the planet’s ability to . Even with efforts in environmental restoration and emissions reductions, only 50% of the world’s carbon emissions have been absorbed from the atmosphere over the past decades, signaling an urgent need for action, the BBC reported in January.

High carbon emissions under Biden

Despite President Joe Biden's commitment to the Paris Agreement, carbon emissions in the US remained alarmingly high during his administration. While his policies purported to reduce and promote renewable energy, industrial emissions, petrol-reliant transportation, and a slow transition away from coal-fired power plants contributed to persistent levels of pollution. The Inflation Reduction Act and other climate-focused initiatives helped curb some emissions, but they fell short of reversing the damage caused by decades of high carbon output.

Guardian journalists Oliver Milman and Nina Lakhani reported in July that oil and gas drilling , with approximately 250 issued in 2021, 400 in 2022 and 758 in 2023.

The lack of strict penalties for failing to meet global temperature reduction goals has allowed the US to continue as a significant emitter without facing immediate repercussions. If the country does not implement stricter measures and enforce compliance, its by 2050 will remain out of reach. Furthermore, unchecked emissions from the US will have dire consequences for the rest of the world, exacerbating rising sea levels, intensifying extreme weather events, and disproportionately impacting vulnerable nations with fewer resources to combat climate change.

China’s renewable energy boom

While the US backtracks on climate commitments, China continues its rapid expansion in renewable energy. With its advanced technology and large-scale production of electric vehicles and solar panels, China has positioned itself as a leader in the transition to low-carbon energy. This growing commitment underscores the country’s role in global efforts to curb carbon emissions, further highlighting the stark contrast between its approach and Trump's environmental rollbacks.

However, China’s trajectory in 2025 remains uncertain. While its renewable energy policies could help keep global temperatures on track with the Paris Agreement, other economic factors may drive emissions to record levels. The imposition of new tariffs by the US could lead to an increase in emissions due to intensified industrial production and supply chain disruptions. If China prioritises economic growth over emission reduction, its reliance on coal and heavy industry could counteract the progress made in renewable energy.

Additionally, with China being the , its policies on energy production, transportation, and manufacturing will significantly influence global temperature trends. If Beijing enforces stricter carbon policies and accelerates its transition to green energy, it could play a pivotal role in meeting global climate goals. Conversely, if economic pressures and geopolitical tensions push China to ramp up fossil fuel consumption, global emissions could surge to an all-time high, making it even harder to meet the net-zero targets by 2050.

Will Australia fall short?

Australia is already facing severe climate consequences, with devastating wildfires, extreme heatwaves  and catastrophic flooding, particularly in Queensland. The country’s dependence on coal — its second-largest export — poses a significant challenge to reducing its emissions in alignment with the Paris Agreement. While Australia has made efforts to transition toward renewable energy, the continued reliance on fossil fuels raises concerns about whether the country is truly on track to meet its climate goals.

Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement further exacerbates these challenges. Without the US committing to global emissions reduction, pressure on other major emitters, including Australia, weakens. As one of the world's largest per capita carbon emitters, Australia may struggle to justify strong policy action if major global powers like the US do not face penalties for failing to meet climate commitments. The lack of stringent international enforcement mechanisms creates an uneven playing field where some nations take aggressive action while others delay critical reforms.

In 2023 alone, Australia emitted approximately 465 million metric tons of CO₂, with coal-fired power plants contributing to more than 40% of the country’s electricity generation, according to the and the . With global temperatures rising and extreme weather events becoming more frequent, the failure to curb emissions could lead to more devastating natural disasters, further straining the economy and displacing vulnerable communities.

Without stronger international cooperation and accountability, Australia's path to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 remains uncertain. If the US and other major polluters do not enforce stricter climate policies, Australia may struggle to implement the necessary changes, ultimately worsening the global climate crisis.

Under Trump’s climate policies, the US is set to fall further behind in meeting global climate targets. His administration’s rollback of environmental regulations and withdrawal from international agreements signal a return to policies favouring fossil fuel industries. This not only hinders the US's path to net-zero emissions but also weakens global efforts to combat climate change.

The Paris Agreement's future now rests on whether other nations, including China and the European Union, can lead the charge in reducing global emissions. Without strict enforcement mechanisms and increased global cooperation, the world may struggle to keep temperature rise below catastrophic levels.