“Significant opportunities, heavy risks”. That was how Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant, with his usual dose of sadism and lack of aplomb, defined Zionism’s new offensive in Lebanon. This new phase in Israel’s military operation across the Middle East — which has involved carrying out genocide in Gaza for almost a year— began with an unprecedented terrorist attack against Hezbollah at the start of last week. In two stages over two days, Mossad blew up thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanese territory, killing about 40 people and leaving hundreds injured. Following this terrorist attack, Israel carried out a bombing raid on Beirut that hit Hezbollah targets and a school, killing 37 people (including 13 children).
Developing a deeper analysis of the dynamics behind Israel’s offensive in the Middle East is decisive for understanding the immediate future of global geopolitics, its central conflicts and developments. We have contributed to this effort through our contacts and publications, including with the (before the current offensive on Lebanon) with Lebanese Marxist intellectual and Middle East specialist Gilbert Achcar in .
Right now, given the genocide in Gaza and the terrifying data accompanying it — for example, the fact that it is, proportionally, the largest child genocide in history — we need to understand three key elements: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s real strategy, including it scope and limits; the military and diplomatic relationship of forces at the international level; and the capacity for popular and military resistance of the Palestinian, Lebanese and allied forces. Genocide is being imposed through killings, starvation and the multiplication of diseases such as polio.
Netanyahu is doubling down. Besieged by criticism and mobilisations, including a September 2 general strike and marches of more than 400,000 people on September 7 demanding negotiations to free the hostages, Netanyahu has no choice but to go on the offensive. Despite his rhetorical claims that his military objective is to neutralise Hamas, in reality Netanyahu and his closest allies want to redesign the map of the Middle East, with a new “Greater Israel” becoming a supremacist and colonial reference point for the global far right. Faced with this situation, in which the Palestinian resistance continues to fight, there has been a shift in the axis of focus in recent months: an offensive tied to the use of intelligence (including a series of assassinations, such as that of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and suspected participation in the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi) and expanding the conflict to the whole region. Mossad had already planted the explosives used in the attack in Lebanon about two years ago — before its current offensive began on October 7. As Achcar wrote in his most recent article:
Netanyahu himself has contributed to the beating of the drums for the coming war on Lebanon, through one of his close associates in the Likud Party who attributed to him the intention to launch a war that will make the Beirut suburb “look like Gaza”.
On the other hand, the siege on Jenin corroborates an intensification of attacks in the West Bank. Brutal images have shown Israeli soldiers throwing Palestinians off high-rise buildings as part of this new offensive.
How has the United States — the main guarantor of the genocide in Gaza — responded? On one hand, it has sought to block countless United Nations resolutions calling for a ceasefire and condemning Netanyahu and the State of Israel; on the other, it is seeking to negotiate to avoid a regional war, given the uncertainty surrounding the November 5 presidential elections. President Joe Biden has been worn down, Kamala Harris wants to maintain her commitment to Zionism, and Donald Trump is a key Netanyahu ally when it comes to lending legitimacy to his “final solution”. The US faces a delicate situation, throwing everything it has to hold onto its geopolitical hegemony in the face of growing competition from China and the US capitalist class facing its biggest split in recent history.
The third element is how those fighting back on the ground will respond. Hezbollah has been dealt a heavy blow, both in terms of demoralising its intelligence service and the assassination of two of its main commanders, Ibrahim Aquil and Ahmed Wabbi. Anyone who saw Nasrallah’s statement after the offensive sensed a certain measured response, despite the increase in missile fire that was intercepted by the Israeli defence system. Recep Tayyip Erdogan again spoke out, calling on “Western nations” to avoid the worst, namely an escalation of the war. Iran condemned the offensive, but made no sudden military moves. The Houthis continue their maritime military operation, exchanging fire and consuming Israeli efforts on this front.
Hezbollah is the fruit of the aftermath of the long Lebanese civil war, part of the Shiite and Islamic movements that hegemonised the struggle against Zionism after the weakening of secular and national liberation movements. As one Spanish analyst put it, it is “bigger than a militia, smaller than a state”. The overall response of Lebanese society, fractured by wars and crises, will be decisive in ensuring the fight against the Zionist offensive does not just become a religious struggle in defence of Shiites.
The international response will also be fundamental. Bolstered by public opinion, ranging from UN resolutions to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu, movements in solidarity with the Palestinian people must step up their efforts. Partial measures such as the suspension of Britain’s arms trade with Israel help weaken Zionism. This battle is also taking place on the domestic front in Brazil, around the campaign to suspend agreements with Elbit, to break diplomatic ties with Israel and strengthen the BDS campaign.
The offensive in Lebanon is an example of how far Netanyahu’s project of death, neo-colonialism and neo-fascism is willing to go. Solidarity with the Lebanese people is an integral part of our immediate program for stopping the supremacists who want to impose their “final solution” as a new standard for the dehumanisation of the other, thereby naturalising the catastrophe we confront on several fronts.
[Israel Dutra is a sociologist, PSOL's Secretary for Social Movements and member of the party's National Directorate, and a member of the Socialist Left Movement (MES/PSOL) National Directorate. First published in Portuguese at . Reposted from links.org.au.]