This winter has been extremely cold in South Korea, with temperatures regularly reaching well below -10掳C 鈥 perhaps another sign of climate change.
South Korea
Will a verbal war between a senile dotard and a little rocket man result in an actual war? Probably not, but at the moment, the risk is unprecedented.
The reason it remains unlikely is simply because the consequences of any actions are so catastrophic. Right now, this is the only deterrent to war.
US President Donald Trump made the unprecedented threat to 鈥渢otally destroy鈥 North Korea, not in a tweet or off the cuff remark, but in a written speech before the United Nations General Assembly on September 20. No other leader of a country has ever stood before the UN and openly stated its intention to destroy another country.聽
Coupled with Trump鈥檚 earlier threat to rain down 鈥渇ire and fury鈥 on North Korea, this threat must be seen as one that at least includes the possibility of a nuclear attack.
Many commentators in the US and elsewhere have poured cold water on the idea there could be a short term war between the US and North Korea.
The Guardian said on August 9: 鈥淏ut despite two unpredictable nuclear-armed leaders trading barbs, most observers believe the possibility of conflict remains remote, with the North Korean leadership using its nuclear program as a bargaining chip rather than an offensive weapon.鈥
US exports to China totalled US$116 billion last year, while its imports reached $463 billion. The $347 billion deficit accounts for almost 70% of the US鈥檚 total trade deficit.
US President Donald Trump鈥檚 most influential senior advisers, Peter Navarro, who heads the National Trade Council, and US secretary of commerce Wilbur Ross, call China 鈥渢he biggest trade cheater in the world鈥.
Moon Jae-in, of the liberal Democratic Party, won South Korea鈥檚 May 9 presidential election with 41% of the vote, easily defeating his arch-conservative opponent Hong Jun-pyo, who won about 24%.
The elections took place after the impeachment of conservative president Park Geun-hye for her involvement in a huge corruption scandal. Park, from Hong鈥檚 right-wing Saenuri Party (renamed Liberty Korea Party in a bid to rebrand), was forced out by the huge 鈥淐andlelight Revolution鈥. Millions of Koreans mobilised in an ongoing series of candlelight protests to demand her impeachment.
The elections also took place in a context of the threat of war in the Korean Peninsula with US President Donald Trump鈥檚 administration ratcheting up tensions with North Korea.
Less than three months into President Donald Trump鈥檚 reign we can already say that there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will soon be engaged in a nuclear war.
The threat is still remote, but the pieces are in place. An aircraft carrier group is聽en route聽to the Korean peninsula and anonymous sources have threatened a pre-emptive strike against North Korea.
At 11.22am on March 10, Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court Lee Jeingmi announced the court had unanimously decided to dismiss President Park Geun-hye. With that, after a 92-day trial, Park鈥檚 presidency was over.
Sitting in Gwanghwamun square on December 31, the screen rapidly dialled up to 10 million as it added up the number of participants in the past 10 candlelight protests against the corrupt influence over President Park Geun-hye by powerful corporate interests.
Every Saturday evening for the last two months of 2016, people had come out in the streets calling for Park鈥檚 impeachment. On December 9, an impeachment motion had been passed in the National Assembly by an overwhelming vote.
When Donald Trump is sworn in as president on January 20, he will take over the running of the US intelligence agencies 鈥 the CIA, FBI, NSA etc 鈥 that have brought charges to discredit the outcome of his election.
The Electoral College has rubberstamped Trump鈥檚 election and Congress has ratified it. The storm over allegations of Russian聽interference in last year鈥檚 elections will pass as The Leader takes charge and cleans house in these agencies.
But there are some things that should be noted about this brouhaha.
South Korea is currently in a vortex of an unprecedented political crisis.
President Park Geun-hye is under huge pressure to resign after a series of exposures of her shameful scandals related to Choi Soonshil, her friend of 40 years and daughter of Reverend Choi Tae-min who allegedly dominated a young Park after the 1975 assassination of her mother.
Despite the rain, hundreds of people turned out in Seongju County on September 4 for a candlelight vigil for the 54th night in a row. Their message is clear: no to the United States鈥 planned deployment of the THAAD missile defence system, not in Seongju or anywhere in South Korea.
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