By Norm Dixon
A new opinion poll, released in early November, predicts that the National Party (NP) will be thrashed in the April 27 general elections. The poll, by Integrated Marketing Research, was specially weighted to include squatters, rural residents and hostel dwellers.
The poll found that 60% of voters support the ANC at this stage. The NP would get only 13%, with the right-wing Freedom Alliance (FA) — which comprises the Inkatha Freedom Party, Conservative Party, Afrikaner Volksfront, and the Ciskei, Bophuthatswana and KwaZulu homeland governments — coming third with 11.5%.
NP support among whites has dropped to about 40% (down from 70% 18 months ago). The poll shows 2.4% support for the white liberal Democratic Party, 2.2% for the Pan Africanist Congress and 0.6% for the black consciousness Azanian People's Organisation.
The poll also found that a very large proportion of coloured and Indian voters remain undecided.
The poll indicates the ANC could win at least 234 of the 400 seats in the national assembly — short of the two-thirds majority needed to approve a final constitution without the support of other parties.
Assuming an 80% voter turnout, the NP and the FA would each be able to claim four seats in the proposed 30-member cabinet of the government of national unity. The ANC would qualify for at least 19 cabinet posts. In addition, it would be entitled to appoint one of three deputy presidents and, with Nelson Mandela as president, would have 21 members — a two-thirds majority in the cabinet.
High turnout
Another poll, conducted by the International Republican Institute, has predicted a much higher voter turnout among Africans than previously expected. It predicts an 80% overall voter turnout, with 88% of Africans, 83% of whites, 69% of coloureds and 63% of Indians saying they are extremely likely or quite likely to vote. The NP is desperately hoping for a big vote amongst coloured and Indian voters.
The poll found only 57% of eligible voters had already made up their minds about who they would vote for, 9% said they would not vote, and another 33% were undecided.
A complicating factor for the NP is that the right-wing Freedom Alliance, which would be expected to vote with the NP in the constituent assembly and the interim government, has threatened to boycott the elections if it is refused its demand that a non-elected all-party group of leaders draw up South Africa's new constitution prior to the elections. It is also demanding highly decentralised and powerful regional governments which can veto central government decisions.
Most South Africans believe that the FA's demands are motivated by the knowledge that their parties will do poorly in any free and fair election. This is also the reason behind Inkatha's war on ANC supporters in Natal and the townships east of Johannesburg. That belief is now being regularly confirmed in opinion polls.
Further confirmation came on October 24, when as many as 80,000 people crammed into Durban's Kings Park Stadium to hear ANC president Nelson Mandela. It was the largest gathering of Zulus since more than 120,000 greeted the recently released Mandela in March 1990. The size of the "sonke" — "all of us" — festival easily eclipsed any rally organised by Inkatha's Chief Mangosuthu Gatsha Buthelezi in recent months in Natal, his supposed stronghold.
The theme of the rally was "different cultures, one people", a rebuke to Buthelezi's attempts to whip up Zulu tribal chauvinism and Inkatha's calls for "self-determination" and threats of secession.
Mandela told the huge crowd that blacks, whites, coloureds and Indians were "part of the threads of the tapestry of South Africa", and it was impossible to separate the threads without destroying the tapestry. "We've come here to celebrate the diversity and unity of our people", he said.
Women candidates
At least a third of all African National Congress in the April 27 elections will be women, the ANC national executive has agreed. The African National Congress Women's League welcomed the decision, describing it as a "victory for all women".
The ANCWL's media coordinator, Lindiwe Zulu, in a statement issued on November 10, noted the decision was an important reassessment by the ANC: "The issue of quotas for women was raised by the ANCWL at the first ANC national conference in Durban 1991, and was vehemently rejected by the men".
She explained that the ANCWL "strongly believes that without the participation of women in decision-making structures, issues of major concern to women cannot be effectively addressed. Because of the way gender oppression is entrenched in our society and because it permeates all aspects of life, there is a need to create special mechanisms which will redress this problem.
"The argument that women do not have experience in government structures and parliament can only be dismissed with contempt. Men in the ANC also lack such experience. But we all have the experience of struggle. We believe there are plenty of capable and competent women out there whose names can be added to the list."
Zulu called on women to join the ANC "in their droves to enable us to have a wider choice of names to vote for at regional and national levels when we draw up our list for the April 1994 election."