The EAST TIMOR INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT CENTRE argues that the Australian government's supposed "historic shift" in policy on East Timor, recently announced by foreign minister Alexander Downer, is much ado about little.
Since the 1970s, both Liberal-National and Labor federal governments have endorsed Indonesia's annexation of East Timor. Through this policy, Australia has been the only western democracy to formally endorse on a de jure basis the sovereignty of Jakarta over East Timor.
Australia's policy has been that the East Timorese are not entitled to a referendum on the political status of the territory, despite the United Nations' recognition of their right to self-determination. In practice, Australia has proven to be a staunch ally of Indonesia in international fora, while large Â鶹´«Ã½ of Australian public opinion have continuously criticised this policy.
The ALP opposition voted at its annual congress in January 1998 to support the East Timorese people's right of self-determination. By September, after the virtual collapse of the Indonesian economy, and the removal of Suharto from the presidency, Labor was clearly articulating its support for an East Timorese self-determination referendum, and independence if that should be its preferred outcome.
Meanwhile, the Howard Coalition government continued supporting Indonesia's argument that East Timor is legally under its sovereignty, making only occasional weak statements critical of the high troop presence in the territory and the human rights violations taking place there.
But in a January 12 media release, Downer announced that the government had decided to make a significant adjustment to its East Timor policy, claiming that the rapidly evolving situation in Indonesia and in East Timor demands a constructive response. It said that Downer is "of the view that the long term prospects for reconciliation in East Timor would be best served by the holding of an act of self-determination at some future time, following a substantial period of autonomy".
The statement adds that this policy adjustment "does not alter the government's position which continues to recognise Indonesian sovereignty over East Timor", and in media interviews Downer added that the government is not in favour of East Timor independence. Rather, the statement says, it would like to see the East Timorese directly involved in considerations of their future, and that the Australian government would accept the outcome of East Timorese-Indonesian negotiations.
The statement also urges the inclusion of East Timorese leaders such as Xanana Gusmao in the process of direct negotiations, and supports his release for this purpose.
The statement is unlikely to result in a profound practical change in the Coalition's position regarding East Timor. It will continue to pay primary consideration to deferring to the sensitivities of Jakarta in order to maintain its harmonious relations with Indonesia.
The main problem with the Downer statement is its ambiguity about the meaning of self-determination; it does not necessarily support the East Timorese's right to hold a referendum to determine the sovereignty aspect of the issue.
However, the statement is of great symbolic importance. It signals to Indonesia that its closest western ally is moving away from its past unconditional support on the issue. As such, it weakens Indonesia's position.
It also signals to progressives internationally, who have been demanding a change in Indonesia's policy on East Timor, that the Australian government agrees with them. The announcement, even if it is short in content and ambiguous, can therefore be exploited internationally to the benefit of the East Timor cause.
Indonesia reacted with hostility. The head of information at the Indonesian foreign ministry, Ghaffar Fadyl, was quoted by Radio Netherlands on January 12 as saying, "We are concerned, and are worried that this change may affect the tri-partite discussions currently under way". Radio Netherlands spoke of an "Australian stab in the back of Jakarta".
Nobel Peace co-laureate Jose Ramos Horta welcomed the statement, saying that he is not so concerned by its details, but happy that it shows that Australia is moving its position on the issue. He said he is prepared to accept that it is a diplomatic necessity that Australia saves the face of Indonesia.
ETISC has been informed that the Howard government had intended to announce the policy shift in mid-February, after federal parliament reconvened, and that indications were given to the Indonesian government that a policy change was being considered.
It appears that the announcement was brought forward by recently increasing public criticism of the government's policy on East Timor, and in particular its handling of the Alas massacre affair.
Downer's statement seems to be calculated so as to avoid a perception of the Howard government as having been left behind by developments in East Timor, and to address domestic public opinion.
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