By Dave Riley
The Northern Ireland peace process is in great jeopardy following the expulsion from political negotiations of Sinn Féin, which represents more than 40% of nationalist opinion in the Six Counties.
Even prior to Sinn Féin's expulsion, the talks were in a seriously sterile condition. The loyalists refused point blank to engage in any serious way, not only with Sinn Féin but with Irish nationalists in general. They sat on their hands and opposed everything in the manner which has become their political hallmark.
Meanwhile loyalist gangs, some of whom were represented at the talks, launched a sustained killing campaign against the nationalist population. Pressure on both fronts by the combined forces of unionism resulted in the British government caving in and producing the Propositions on the Heads of Agreement, yet another proposal for an internal settlement. Rather than take on the unionists, it once again demanded that the nationalists accept less than their due.
This chain of events has exposed more clearly the legacy and current reality of the British government as protagonists to the conflict in Ireland and the central, overriding role of the British state in sustaining the causes of conflict.
It reveals the mythology that the election of the Blair Labour government in 1997 would end the stranglehold of the loyalists over the peace process.
During those same elections, Sinn Féin reaped the benefits of having been seen to be the most consistent force for continuing the peace process, despite obstruction by others. Two Sinn Féin MPs were elected to the House of Commons, followed by the election of an MP to the Irish parliament.
But Sinn Féin's electoral mandate hasn't guaranteed it success at the negotiating table. The settlement currently on offer to the Republicans fails completely to address the demands for British withdrawal, self-determination and Irish unity.
But if there is no threat to the Union, why the consistent refusal by a significant part of unionism to take part in talks which are designed to put the stamp on these proposals? Why the murderous sectarian campaign?
The main reason, suggests David Coen from the British journal Socialist Outlook, is that the Six County state cannot be reformed, and the unionists know it.
"The most minor concession", he says, "exposes its undemocratic core. It was imposed by force against the wishes of the majority in Ireland and it can only be kept in place by sectarian gerrymandering and corruption which was the hallmark of the Stormont regime ... Any reforms, however minor, could bring the whole undemocratic structure crashing down.
"This is what lies behind the ongoing complaints and threats by unionists about the 'concessions' which Blair and (special minister for Northern Ireland) Mo Mowlam have apparently made to the nationalists. The truth is that, apart from transferring some prisoners to Ireland and setting up a parades commission, the British have given nothing to (Sinn Féin leader Gerry) Adams to sell to the base of the Republican movement."
In order to keep the unionists in the talks, Blair has even taken back some meagre gestures already made. Far from being a neutral broker between warring Irish factions, as establishment media commentators like to present it, the Blair government has chosen to remain in the role of colonial occupier, underwriting unionist hegemony in the Six Counties.
With unionists continuing to stonewall, and London and Dublin giving them cover to do so, what little confidence may have remained in the "all-party" peace process has been shattered with Sinn Féin's recent expulsion.
With the loyalists indiscriminately killing Catholics, the "peace process" in disarray and Sinn Féin nothing to show for its diplomacy, nationalist leaders are now having to argue against a resumption of the armed struggle.
For the moment, Sinn Féin has not decided whether it will continue to participate in the talks, nor has it indicated what alternative or additional strategies might be pursued.