By James Vassilopoulos
In classical Orwellian doublespeak, editorials in the establishment press following the election declared, "A mandate is a mandate", and demanded that the Coalition government be allowed to implement its goods and services tax. The election results, however, showed the opposite: there is a mandate to reject a GST — based on the fact that a majority of people voted for parties that opposed a GST.
Those defending the view that John Howard has a mandate for a GST argue that the Coalition won a majority of House of Representatives seats and that the Senate should not block legislation, but should only review and amend legislation. But neither the constitution nor political tradition impose such a limit on the Senate.
The fact that the Coalition won a majority of House of Representative seats with a minority of votes only illustrates how undemocratic the election system is. The single member electorate system does not mean that the party with the most votes gets the most seats. A party could win 25% of the national vote without winning a single seat.
If the House of Representative election was a fair system of proportional representation — a system in which the percentage of vote received was the same as the percentage of seats won — the election result would be very different.
The Coalition got 39% of the first-preference vote. In a proportional system, it would have won 58 seats, not the 79 seats it looks like getting. The anti-GST parties would get at least 82 seats with over 57% of the vote, in a house of 148.
In terms of its percentage of first-preference votes, and even in two-party preferred terms, the Coalition is clearly a minority government.
Opinion polls showed that more and more people opposed the GST as the election campaign progressed.
A poll published in the Sun Herald on July 27 found 46% support for the GST, with 42% opposed. By September 1, this had reversed to 38% support and 47% opposed. This was despite the Coalition using millions of taxpayer dollars to fund a television campaign to support "a new tax system".
The latest poll, published in the Sydney Morning Herald on October 2, the day before the election, showed 55% opposed to a GST, with 38% in favour.
Howard is therefore not carrying out the will of the people, but the will of big business.
Howard's own view on mandates has changed since he was in opposition. In 1987 Howard stated: "That suggestion [about a mandate] is invalid not only in terms of the number of votes cast but from the simple proposition that when people vote at an election, they do not vote on only one issue.
"The mandate theory of politics, from the point of view of proper analysis, has always been absolutely phoney."
The GST is a massive redistribution of wealth from the poor to the rich, and it must be stopped. For the GST to become law, it must be passed by the Senate. The Senate, however, can not be relied upon to block the GST.
From now till July 1 (the date when newly elected senators take their seats), provided the Democrats do not reach a compromise with the government, Howard would need the votes of Brian Harradine and Mal Colston to get the GST legislation through the Senate.
These senators do not have a good track record in standing up to the Coalition on policies which hurt workers or the disenfranchised. Harradine voted in favour of the Native Title (Amendment) Bill, after making a few slight changes. Last year, he voted for the legislation which privatised one-third of Telstra. He has already stated that he will accept the GST, as long as it is amended.
Howard has said that he wants to push the GST legislation through quickly, before Christmas.
This is an undemocratic plan, since it would mean that the issue would be decided by senators elected in 1993 and 1996, not those elected on October 3. Roughly half of the Coalition senators voting for the GST would be those elected to the Senate in 1996 on a platform of "never ever" introducing a GST. This unaccountability of politicians, further undermines any claim of a mandate.
From July, it is likely that the Australian Democrats will have the numbers, with the ALP, to stop the GST. Already, however, they have shown a willingness to compromise with the Coalition by stating that they would support a GST that exempted food.
The whole GST needs to be defeated. Just as it is unfair to tax food, it is also unfair to tax other basic needs and services like public transport, clothing, water and electricity.
The ALP pledged to vote against the GST in the Senate. However, it is unlikely to repeal the tax if it passes, if it wins the next federal election. Gareth Evans, Labor's economic spokesperson, told ABC radio: "Once a GST is introduced, it's effectively there forever".
Kim Beazley, the day before the election, said a GST would be "irreversible" if Howard won.
There are also differences in the ALP. Bob Carr claimed on the ABC's Stateline program on October 9, "A government with a majority in the lower house ought to be able to implement its program, not subject to frustration by the upper house".
Moreover, there is no indication that the ALP wants to launch or be involved in a grassroots campaign to stop the GST.
The time is ripe for unions, progressive groups and parties to launch demonstrations and rallies against the GST. There is evidence, as the polls suggest, that thousands of people would participate in such actions.
Trade unions, with their activists and resources, embodying 30% of the working class, could play a crucial role. Politically it would be very important for unions to lead such a campaign, because it would undermine government propaganda that unions are selfish organisation led by fat-cat bureaucrats.
According to Tim Gooden, ACT government section secretary, ACT Trades and Labour Council delegate and member of the Democratic Socialists, unions must lead the fight against the GST.
"This tax attacks the poor and the vulnerable. Unions are in a position to lead the fight back; these groups are not.
"A big opportunity exists to mobilise widespread opposition which exists in the community. Unless we go out into the streets, the Senate will do some grubby deal which brings in the rotten GST", said Gooden.
Gooden believes, "We can win this one, just like English people stopped Margaret Thatcher's poll tax".
Paul Matters, secretary of the NSW South Coast Labour Council, told Â鶹´«Ã½ Weekly that unions must "lead the social and political movements on the big issues" — not just against the GST but also on unemployment, a shorter working week and "the mass struggles against the economic crisis".
Tim Pallas, assistant secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, told Â鶹´«Ã½ Weekly that the GST is clearly regressive and must be opposed. Pallas said the ACTU would concentrate on lobbying the Democrats and the ALP.
This lobbying approach was echoed by Stephen Spence, president of the United Trades and Labour Council of South Australia.
The December ACTU national council meeting will review what the ACTU does. Gooden believes that lobbying politicians will not be enough to stop the GST. By December, he said, it may be too late to stop the tax.
"We need a national day of action of street protests, organised by the union movement and involving all groups opposed to the tax. This day should also include a 24-hour stoppage, to show we are serious about stopping this pro-big-business GST", said Gooden.
Matters said, "A national day of action can be important symbolically, but what is still needed is a mass community campaign, around all major issues, not just the GST". He said there are currently no plans for action and none expected.
Spence stated that the UTLC has a record of supporting community campaigns, so if there was a community push, it would be likely to support that.
Pallas said that an ACTU national day of action is "highly improbable". It is unlikely that the ACTU would coordinate industrial action against the GST. Pallas was in favour of "community activism, expressions of concern and protesting".
Unionists have begun to organise against the GST. The October 7 ACT TLC meeting considered a motion to call on the ACTU to convene a special unions conference to launch a campaign against the GST, beginning with a 24-hour stoppage of all affiliates. The motion was deferred and will be considered on November 4.
Gooden is confident many unionists would support a campaign against the GST that included industrial action.