Greenhouse over Sweden
By Greg Peters
STOCKHOLM — A series of dramatic shipping accidents and near misses has occurred in the Baltic region since the Shetlands disaster. It is apparent that the north European transport infrastructure has met new challenges from the weather.
"Global warming will result in 25% higher wind speeds over the North Atlantic since evaporational energy is one of the most important sources of energy for winter storms in Europe", according to Mojib Latif, a meteorologist with the Hamburg Climate Centre.
Latif's theoretical predictions seem to fit the news. The last five years have brought unseasonably temperate winters in accompanied by powerful storms. This past winter has been particularly violent to Swedish Lappland. Researchers accustomed to strong winds guyed their huts down with cables, but even this could not prevent three of them from being blown away.
Marine salt made an unexpected appearance: the wind carried sea spray all the way over Norway from the North Sea. Last month the captain of one of the standard passenger ferries that link Sweden and Denmark radioed "We're sinking!" as waves smashed through the bow door of the ship. Fortunately, this was the limit of the damage, and the ferry returned all of its passengers healthy, if cold, to land. The storm was not expected to reach such strength so suddenly.
Violent weather has increased worldwide in step with the Swedish experience. Storm damage has increased 10-fold since the 1960s.
1990 was the warmest year in the last 100. 1991 was the next warmest despite the eruption of Mt Pinatubo and the overall cooling effect volcanic eruptions are believed to have. This century's seven warmest years occurred in the last decade. The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has increased by 25% due to human activities since the industrial revolution. Over half of this increase has occurred in the last 30 years.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts a temperature rise of 4.5C by the end of the next century, based on current emissions. Serious climatic changes are expected long before then. Canada and Russia can expect longer growing seasons, but less developed countries around the equator will become even drier. The farmlands of the USA should experience drier weather also. Changes in ocean temperatures can result in algal blooms and plankton death — a threat to the viability of all marine animals. The IPCC also expects a rise in sea levels of between 30 and 110 cm by the year 2100.
Global warming is expected to result in greater changes in the cold temperate regions than in the tropics. It is not well known how fast the climatic regions will move north in Sweden, though a figure of one km per year has been suggested. Such a rapid movement would leave many plant species behind. A stand of Engelmann spruce can conquer new y 20 metres per year. In addition, warmer temperatures reduce some species' resistance to insect attack. Massive nationwide planting schemes would be necessary to replace those species that can not survive increased warmth and to help ecosystems move north.
Yet such actions can only be considered as temporary, band-aid, solutions to the problem. In the longer term, we have to avoid fossil fuels.