By Max Lane
Indonesian minister of defence Edi Sudrajat announced on May 5 that he would be relinquishing his position of armed forces (ABRI) commander in chief. General Feisal Tanjung, deputy chief of staff of the army, would be appointed to the position — jumping over his superior, army chief of staff Lt Gen Wismoyo Munandar.
This decision represents another defeat for President Suharto, who has been helping General Wismoyo, his brother-in-law, position himself to become ABRI commander as a possible stepping stone to the presidency.
Surprising those who thought that Suharto had achieved the upper hand after radically reducing ABRI influence in his new cabinet, the appointment of Feisal Tanjung should delay any moves upwards by Wismoyo for two to three years. The appointment could be seen as another case of ABRI presenting a fait accompli to Suharto, as it did in February when it announced its nomination of General Try Sutrisno for vice-president.
An open battle is being fought in the press between ABRI and Suharto's supporters over who should be appointed the new head of the government political party, Golkar. Golkar holds its congress this month, and Suharto is rumoured to be putting forward his long-time associate and information minister, Harmoko, as a candidate.
ABRI figures, including the defence minister, General Sudrajat, have stated publicly that it should be a military figure. This has been rejected by technology minister Habibie.
Habibie is emerging as one of the most powerful influences in the government. He is also head of a new political grouping, the Islamic Intellectuals Association, which is wielding increasing influence in the state apparatus. Habibie has been backing Harmoko and making statements that as Golkar chairman you cannot be loyal to the Golkar
membership and to ABRI headquarters at the same time.
While ABRI is having some successes in struggles over appointments, it is being put more and more on the back foot by its narrow political program.
It has not attempted to form a campaigning alliance with civilian forces — although it maintains links behind the scenes with a number of anti-Suharto civilian groups. This strategy reflects the contradictory position ABRI is in.
On the one hand, it has emerged as the "vanguard" within the political elite opposed to the Suharto clique. As a result, it now shares some interests with the elite-based pro-democracy forces. This was highlighted by the launching of a biography of former defence minister Benny Moerdani, considered still the power behind the scenes in military circles, with an introduction by the chairperson of the liberal democratic grouping Democratic Forum.
At the same time, ABRI operates as the bully boy and political cop, suppressing human rights activists and protesting workers and peasants. Its repressive role makes it the mainstay of the authoritarian political system that allows Suharto to rule without any open, direct opposition.
ABRI's strategy of trying to take power from Suharto by winning state positions for its own officers is only heightening fears of a return to militarist rule. On the other hand, Suharto's support from the Islamic intellectuals gives him the appearance of being a more pro-civilian politician.
In these circumstances, more calls are emerging from moderate civilian critics of the government for ABRI to repeat in some form a famous 1966 civilian-military seminar which formed an alliance between ABRI and a group of civilian politicians and intellectuals behind a specific economic and political program.
This pressure is likely to bring to the fore internal disagreements within ABRI over its future
role in politics: a conflict between those seeking ABRI's withdrawal from day-to-day political affairs (maintaining only a last instance veto and perhaps a representation in parliament) and those who wish to see ABRI represented in the state apparatus right to the very top.
It is likely that this conflict will begin to manifest itself in a public discussion over whether ABRI should support a civilian candidate for president in the future. The relative strength of these opposing viewpoints in ABRI is a key unknown in Indonesian politics.
In the meantime, even outspoken civil liberties critics of the government and supporters of an end to presidential authoritarianism such as Buyung Nasution have said they would support continuing involvement of ABRI people in politics if ABRI were to support democratic reform. "As long as they don't confuse the language of weapons, with the language of politics", Nasution told the new outspoken weekly magazine DETIK in March.