BY FAROOQ TARIQ
LAHORE, November 13 — The Northern Alliance has taken over with little or no resistance by the Taliban forces. The much-threatened jihad of the Taliban was nowhere to be seen when the Northern Alliance forces arrived.
The myth created by the Taliban and their supporters internationally that no-one could defeat the Taliban has been shattered. The fall of Kabul to the Northern Alliance (NA) was not the result of a "tactical retreat", as some media commentators have put it, but a result of the total collapse of morale among the Taliban.
The US-sponsored Northern Alliance took over Kabul only a day after President George Bush made a public plea to its commanders not to advance on the city. Bush wanted to please visiting Pakistan military ruler General Pervaiz Musharraf. The Pakistan government is now pleading for a UN peace-keeping force to help create a broad-based government in Afghanistan.
The US desperately needed a big victory immediately. That is why the public plea of Bush to the NA not to enter Kabul was put aside.
The NA's easy capture of Kabul shows the absolute dictatorial nature of the Taliban and its fast disappearing social base. The ordinary citizens of Kabul seemed quite delighted over this victory.
Among its first decisions, the NA allowed women to return to the jobs they had been banned from under the Taliban. The decision, however, was taken to please its masters in the imperialist countries. The majority of the NA has no different policy on women's role in society from that of the Taliban. Once the NA strengthens its power base, the real face of these religious fanatics will come out in the open.
US imperialism has once again used the tactic of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". It paid a heavy price in the past for supporting and promoting the religious fundamentalists against the Soviet Union. It is repeating the same tactic in relation to the warlords of the NA.
The Taliban's defeat in Kabul is no victory for US imperialism. In order to force the Taliban out of Kabul, Washington had to rely on supporting one group of Afghan religious fundamentalists against another. The NA might make some changes in its outlook initially, but it will not change its fundamental aim of maintaining an Islamic state in Afghanistan.
The Taliban will now lose its power in Kandahar as well. It will fight a guerilla war after retreating to the mountains, but will not have much weight in Afghanistan's political life. Osama bin Laden may lose his life alongside with many other Taliban leaders. But religious fundamentalism will not die with the death of its most known leaders.
The Taliban's attempts to build a new base among the Pashtun tribes on the other side of the Afghan-Pakistani border will not meet with much success. The Taliban chapter of history has ended. There is not much time left before they will formally be out of power from all parts of Afghanistan.
Now religious fundamentalism will have to wait a long time to take over a state power, as was the case in Afghanistan and Iran. But religious fundamentalism will not die down and the extreme face of these forces will express itself in suicidal attacks, guerilla activities and so on.
Problems for Musharraf
The taking over of Kabul by the NA has brought more difficulties for the Musharraf military regime in Pakistan. This action of the NA has been carried out contrary to the strategy of General Musharraf. It seems that US imperialism has played a double game. On one side, it has been assuring Musharraf that Washington will not do anything against its interests. On the other hand, via Russia, it armed the NA to take on the Taliban.
US imperialism was very worried that its own soldiers should not be killed in this war. So the strategy was to arm the NA to do the job instead. It gave them full air cover to move forward to Kabul. The reaction of Tony Blair and George Bush indicates that the taking of Kabul is no surprise for them and that it fits in with their plans.
The Pakistan military regime has been taken aback by the speed of the events. The Bush administration has been praising General Musharraf's regime for its "brave and timely" support for the imperialists' "war on terrorism". But the fall of Kabul has changed many things. In particular, it will give Washington greater leverage over the Pakistani military rulers.
In the first place, there will be increased pressure from Washington on General Musharraf to end the Pakistan military's policy of using mujahideen fighters in Kashmir. If Musharraf does accede to this pressure, he may well lose power.
New civil war
The fall of Kabul was not a surprise for the left in Pakistan. The religious fundamentalists were fighting a war they could not win. The Pakistan regime had deserted them. You cannot fight a war with religious feelings alone. We said again and again that the Taliban would lose the war in a short space of time.
The Taliban was the most hated regime that the Afghan masses had ever seen in their whole history. It sought to impose by force medieval social customs upon the masses. The people of Afghanistan were forced to adopt some of these practices, but the Taliban never had any mass social base in Afghanistan. The religious fundamentalist forces were a very committed minority who were able to come to power and hold it because they had the backing of international religious fundamentalist forces, as well as the Pakistani military.
The fall of Kabul will not bring any stable regime in Afghanistan. Civil war between the rival factions based among the different ethnic groups will soon follow. But the difference will be that now the religious divisions will go into the background and the ethnic divisions will come to the fore. Afghanistan is a jungle of different nationalities and tribes.
There is not going to be a massive pumping in of US dollars to stabilise the situation. The new rulers will be given some peanuts and then left to fight among themselves. The dire poverty of the masses will not be alleviated, let alone overcome.
There could be a short liberalisation in Afghanistan if a broad-based government is established under the influence of US imperialism. But the Northern Alliance is in a very powerful position. It can dictate its terms but it is unable to unite the different nationalities.
US imperialism's strategy will be to establish a broad-based government loyal to the aging former king, Zahir Shah. But this government will be very short lived, as it will not be able to stop a renewal of civil war.
If a government is established in Afghanistan against the wishes of the Pakistani military regime, this will lead to a new phase of hostility between Kabul and Islamabad. A war between Pakistan and Afghanistan cannot be ruled out in these circumstances.
The Labour Party Pakistan will help the tiny forces of the left in Afghanistan to take advantage of any possible liberalisation following the defeat of the Taliban. The weekly Mazdoor Jeddojuhd is planning to print a monthly edition of the paper in Pushtu with the close collaboration of the Afghanistan Revolutionary Labour Organisation.
The left internationally should continue to oppose US imperialism's attempt to impose a new puppet regime in Afghanistan and its hypocritical "war on terrorism". The anti-globalisation campaign linked to the peace movement must carry on. One fundamentalist group is gone, the other, with the help of the US, has come to power. We have no choice but to oppose this new change in Kabul for a better democratic, socialist change.
[Farooq Tariq is the general secretary of the Labour Party Pakistan.]
From Â鶹´«Ã½ Weekly, November 21, 2001.
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